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Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|