Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Struggles With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to broker an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump leverage to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his first term, including his choice to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
Putin may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The next day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.